TMGM: U.S. Election Race Reaches a Fever Pitch! With Less than a Week to Go, Who Has the Edge — Harris or Trump?

With less than a week until the U.S. election, Harris and Trump are vying for swing states like North Carolina and Wisconsin. Trump’s stunts, like arriving on a garbage truck, have drawn attention, but his policies on immigration and the economy remain key strengths, particularly with Latino voters and his economic record. Harris appeals to inclusivity and cultural diversity but faces challenges with her policy clarity. Both candidates’ support in key states is nearly even, creating a highly competitive race. TMGM analysts note this tight contest is keeping the U.S. Dollar Index high, with potential for further volatility.

Recent Remarks 

With only days remaining until the November 5 U.S. election, both presidential candidates are making a final push. On October 30, both Harris and Trump ramped up their campaigns with a two-state-per-day strategy, coincidentally visiting pivotal battleground states North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Late on the 30th, Republican candidate Trump attended a rally in Wisconsin, donning an orange safety vest and arriving on a garbage truck. The move was a rebuttal to remarks by a Biden supporter, who recently described Puerto Rico as a “floating garbage island” during a pro-Trump rally. Trump quickly distanced himself from these statements. The Democrats, however, seized the moment, with Biden condemning the disparagement of Latinos by Trump supporters, calling it “unreasonable” and labeling some Trump supporters as “garbage.”

Trump retorted in North Carolina, stating that Biden’s words reveal a Democratic contempt for the red camp’s supporters. Although Biden clarified that his comments targeted only the “hate speech” by that supporter, the controversy lingered. Seated atop the garbage truck, Trump fired back, saying Biden “should be ashamed of himself,” and implicated Democratic candidate Harris in the incident as well.

Strengths and Weaknesses 

Trump is solidifying his base, aiming to secure support from "redneck" voters with similar ideologies while also making inroads with minority groups, particularly Latinos. In an unusual move, Trump has urged Republican voters to vote early, indicating he does not want Democrats to monopolize the early voting narrative and visibility. Some analysts note that Trump is adept at political stunts, like serving fries or arriving on a garbage truck—though with debatable efficacy.

Harris’s strengths lie in the Democratic Party’s inclusive ideology, which tends to embrace immigrants and cultural diversity more openly than the Republican establishment. However, her challenges include an ambiguous policy direction and limited display of economic governance. Additionally, after a promising start, the “Harris effect” has recently waned. Trump, on the other hand, has capitalized on clear, impactful issues, such as immigration—a topic of global significance, with anti-immigration sentiments rising in many developed countries. Trump's economic governance, particularly his tax cuts that benefitted individuals, small businesses, and major corporations, is another advantage, along with his promises to repatriate manufacturing jobs. Nonetheless, Trump faces criticisms for statements perceived as racially insensitive and for his unconventional approach, which some argue may undermine democratic norms. Additionally, his economic policies risk escalating national debt.

Polarized Policy Issues 

The 2024 election spotlights pronounced divides, notably on immigration. Trump and the Republicans favor strict border control and reduced illegal immigration, citing national security and traditional American values. Democrats advocate for more lenient immigration policies, promoting cultural diversity, offering pathways to legal status for undocumented immigrants, and supporting education and job opportunities for immigrants. On climate, Harris’s team views climate change as a global crisis needing immediate action, positioning the U.S. as a leader in global environmental initiatives. Republicans, however, prioritize economic growth and traditional energy industries, arguing that aggressive environmental policies could harm the fossil fuel sector and weaken U.S. economic competitiveness and job stability.

Swing States and Recent Polls 

Historically, it's not uncommon for candidates from both parties to appear in the same battleground state on the same day. This year’s race, however, is particularly tight, with outcomes difficult to predict. In the seven major swing states, poll differentials are within a 2-3% margin of error. In certain states, the candidates are nearly tied, suggesting that “a few thousand votes” could determine the allocation of all electoral votes in those states, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Although Trump holds a slight edge on certain economic issues, recent polls by The Wall Street Journal and Forbes reflect only a narrow lead. The Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s support at 47%, with a modest lead over Harris, while Forbes places Trump at 51%. However, this lead remains precarious, lacking decisive momentum. Additionally, wealth's influence on U.S. politics is starkly visible this election. Tech moguls like Tesla’s CEO Musk have openly backed Trump, primarily driven by concerns over Democratic taxes and regulations. The ultra-wealthy are investing heavily to sway the outcome, making this election a veritable "cash-fueled showdown."

Analysis and Summary 

TMGM analysts conclude that Trump’s strategy of focusing on clear, impactful issues and his economic governance reputation are key strengths. Although Harris’s momentum has slowed, she continues to consolidate her base among key voter demographics. This deadlocked scenario is likely to persist until election night. Due to the electoral uncertainty, the U.S. Dollar Index has remained high, searching for direction. Currently, the daily index shows a slight pullback, yet remains above the 48-day bullish threshold. The MACD double lines and volume bars are still above the zero-axis, suggesting potential further rebounds.